Farm bill

See maps of the 2019 ARC-CO and PLC corn, soybean and wheat payments.

Payments are associated with the 2019 harvest yield and the subsequent 12 months of national prices that were averaged to determine the marketing year average (MYA).  Payments were triggered in October 2020 and later issued to producers. 

• The ARC-CO payments displayed are actual per acre payments based on county yield and MYA.
• The PLC payments displayed are estimated based on the actual per bushel PLC payment multiplied by an estimated typical PLC yield in each county.
• The difference map shows actual per acre ARC-CO payments subtracted from the estimated PLC payments.
  • The darker the blue, the larger the ARC-CO payments were estimated to be as compared to PLC payments in that county.
  • The darker the orange, the larger the PLC payments were estimated to be as compared to ARC-CO payments in that county.
• The maps show that as prices drop beyond the reference price, the more likely PLC is to have larger payments unless yield is notably below average.

Presentation slides

• 2021 Farm Bill FSA meeting Extension presentation
• ARC/PLC Program Overview

Farm Bill ARC/PLC Decision for 2021

(Webinar video: 1:30:39)

ARC-CO

Farm Service Agency abbreviates Agricultural Risk Coverage based on county yield as ARC-CO. ARC-CO protects 85 percent of commodity crop base acres using countywide yield and a national marketing year average (MYA) price to determine if payments are triggered. 

PLC

Farm Service Agency abbreviates Price Loss Coverage as PLC. PLC protects 85 percent of commodity crop base acres using a national marketing year average price and a predetermined effective reference price to determine if payments are triggered. If the payments are triggered, the difference between the effective reference price and the MYA is then multiplied by the producer’s farm and commodity specific PLC yield.

ARC-IC

Farm Service Agency abbreviates Agricultural Risk Coverage based on producer’s individual yield as ARC-IC. ARC-CO protects only 65 percent of covered commodity crops planted on the individual’s farm. It uses the producer’s actual yield and a national marketing year average price to determine if payments are triggered. ARC-IC is a whole farm program, meaning all commodities on a specific farm number must be enrolled in ARC-IC. 

Covered commodities

ARC and PLC are not available for all agricultural crops grown in Minnesota. Only covered commodities with established base acres are eligible for participation in ARC and PLC sign-up. The 22 covered commodities nationwide include wheat, oats, barley, corn, grain sorghum, rice, soybeans, sunflower seed, rapeseed, canola, safflower, flaxseed, mustard seed, crambe, sesame seed, seed cotton, dry peas, lentils, small chickpeas, large chickpeas, and peanuts. Farm Service Agency recognizes 13 covered commodities in Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension’s Farm Bill educational analysis focuses on corn, soybean and wheat pricing and sign-up decisions.

See estimates for ARC-CO and PLC  in your county

Follow the link above and select your county to see sensitivity graphs that show the county average ARC-CO yield and an estimated typical PLC yield for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Each farm has their own individual PLC yield based on actual production history (APH) multiplied by 90 percent and multiplied again by a PLC update factor. So the PLC yields in this graph are simply estimates and may not match your farm specific PLC yields.

• The red line in the MYA column shows the effective reference price for PLC, meaning any price below that will begin triggering PLC payments. PLC payments are highlighted yellow and enclosed in a red box.
• The green highlighted cells show projected combinations of county yield and MYA prices that produce ARC-CO payments. The average county yield column for ARC-CO shows the MYA needed for a payment trigger when ARC-CO yield is average.
• The payment using the highest price possible while still triggering ARC-CO when yield is average is enclosed in a red box. At average yields, prices must fall significantly lower than current projected prices to trigger ARC-CO payments under corn and soybeans. For wheat, current price projections are below the price needed to trigger both ARC-CO and PLC.
• The text on the far right lists the estimated yield that would produce an ARC-CO payment at USDA Worldwide Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) outlook prices as of January 12, 2021.
• UPDATE:
  • On February 9, 2021, the USDA updated WASDE corn price up 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel, held soybean price stagnant at $11.15 per bushel, and updated wheat price up 15 cents to $5.00 per bushel. 
  • Remember, as MYA prices increase, the average countywide yield needed to trigger an ARC-CO payment decreases. So, for corn and wheat, if 2021 MYA prices are higher as the WASDE now predicts, the average yield to trigger a payment would be slightly lower than listed on our graphs.
  • PLC payment triggers are never dependent on yield.

These sensitivity graphs are visual representations of price estimates. Prices may change significantly over the next year and a half.

• Program selections for 2021 must be made by March 15, 2021.
• Prices to determine MYA for 2021 will be collected between September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2022 for corn and soybeans.
• For wheat, the MYA for 2021 will be collected June 1, 2021 to May 31, 2022.
• Payments, if triggered, would be issued after October 1, 2022.

These graphs are educational in nature and are not intended to project 2021 payments. If a county does not have a graph for corn, soybeans or wheat, that means FSA did not have enough yield data to release the information and we were unable to make calculations for those counties' commodities.

Dairy Margin Coverage is an FSA program that analyzes the difference between milk price and feed cost, the margin. The United States all-milk price is used.

• The feed cost uses a ration calculated by the USDA using a NASS pricing for corn and blended alfalfa hay.
• The soybean meal uses AMS prices from Illinois.
• Dairy farmers can elect to cover from 5% to 95% of their annual milk production from a margin coverage from $4.00 to $9.50 in $0.50 increments.
• The amount of milk production is the dairy’s highest annual production between 2011, 2012 or 2013. A new dairy can use either the USA average production per cow, or a year later than 2013.

The table below shows the premiums for each coverage level, both for Tier 1, under 5 million pounds, and Tier 2, over 5 million pounds. Discounted Tier 2 shows the discount for the 5-year commitment. The discounted Tier 1 is only applicable if the dairy signed up for the 5-year commitment or is a new dairy.

The table below shows the margins calculated for 2020. March, April and May are the only months, so far, in 2020 to have a payment. April and May were substantial payments.

Example for a dairy with a production history of 5 million pounds at the 95 percent coverage at the $9.50 level:

• 5,000,000 lbs. x 95% = 4,750,000 lbs.
• 4,750,000 lbs. / 100 = 47,500 cwt.
• 47,500 cwt. x $0.15 = $7,125 premium for DMC
• If 5-year was locked in $7,125 x 75% = $5,343.75 premiums.
• There is an additional $100 administrative fee.

For April, the margin was $6.03:

• $9.50 - $6.03 = $3.47
• 47,500 cwt. / 12 months =3,958.333 cwt. per month
• 3,958.333 cwt. x $3.47 = $13,735.42 April payment from DMC

There are two decision tools for farmers to use

• USDA DMC Decision Tool
• University of Wisconsin-Madison DMC Decision Tool

University of Minnesota Extension highly recommends looking at the numbers to determine if this program is helpful for your dairy. Risk management is a tool farmers cannot overlook.

For additional information, view a November 5, 2020 recording (video; 1:08:48) about enrolling in the Dairy Margin Coverage for 2021. The next time to enroll will be Fall 2021 for the 2022 decision.