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How to identify new business opportunities

Retail business thresholds

Are there more vacant storefronts on your Main Street than open businesses? Do residents bemoan the loss of area businesses, or are entrepreneurs searching for local opportunities? Business thresholds are a quick — and effective — way to measure whether or not a particular business type might work in your community.

Defined as the number of people per business in a given area (such as Minnesota or the United States), a threshold provides a very basic sense of demand.

For example, according to the Economic Census, 1,540 clothing stores operated in Minnesota in 2017. If you divide the state’s population in 2017 (5,577,487) by the number of clothing stores, there were 3,622 people per establishment. If you live in a town of 4,000 people without a clothing store, then opening one may be a viable business opportunity. 

Thresholds for Minnesota

The Minnesota Department of Revenue provided Extension with gross sales, taxable sales, and the number of establishments for all Minnesota businesses reporting sales tax at the 4-digit NAICS level for 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2020. While these data are self-reported and may have data inaccuracies, they are quality data since state legal requirements ask that businesses strive for accurate sales tax reporting.

NAICS categories for businesses

The federal government uses NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System) to classify all businesses by type for consistent reporting. At the 4-digit NAICS level, the sales tax from the Department of Revenue is specific to a store format, such as grocery store (4451) or liquor store (4453), whereas both are combined together in the food and drink industry at the 3-digit level (445).

It’s helpful to think in terms of stores and not products with this data and thresholds. Even though Super Target or Super Walmart sell groceries, those sales get reported in the general merchandise category (NAICS 452), which best describes the two chains. Likewise, pharmacies often carry gifts and general merchandise, but their sales are reported in health and personal care stores (NACIS 4461). Review a complete listing of NAICS codes.

Extension generated thresholds for store formats by simply dividing the number of establishments by Minnesota’s total population for each respective year. In addition, Extension also calculated the sales per capita to provide context. 

Example: Clothing Store (NAICS 4481) using data from year 2020

  • No. of establishments in MN: 1,810
  • Gross sales in MN: $1,263,521,438
  • Threshold (residents/business): 3,153
  • Sales per capita (gross sales/resident): $221.42


With 1,810 clothing stores in Minnesota in 2020, there were 3,153 residents per store and $221 spent at clothing stores per resident. These are simple calculations based on only the population of Minnesota and do not take into consideration spending by visitors from outside the state, or likewise, the spending Minnesotans do in other states.

Thresholds for a store format change over time, along with consumer tastes and shopping patterns. Although clothing stores have remained at a consistent threshold, according to sales tax data since 2016, others such as book and music stores (NAICS 4512) have changed dramatically.

Figure 1: Clothing store threshold and number of stores by year

The thresholds for book and music stores have changed simply due to a fewer number of stores, decreasing from 950 establishments in 2012 to 440 in 2020.

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Thresholds for retail and service categories in Minnesota

The number of Minnesota residents per business varies greatly, depending on the type of business. In 2020, there were as few as 555 residents per drinking or dining establishment to as many as 95,108 residents per amusement park or arcade.

Table 1: Minnesota thresholds by year and NAICS category
NAICS Industry 2012 2016 2019 2020
4411 Automobile Dealers 7,018 6,685 6,605 6,917
4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers (rec vehicles, boats, RVs) 8,831 9,108 9,563 9,639
4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores 4,040 4,117 4,424 4,602
4421 Furniture Stores 8,549 8,990 10,107 10,190
4422 Home Furnishings Stores 4,535 5,250 5,755 6,278
4431 Electronics & Appliance Stores 3,827 4,024 4,090 3,991
4441 Building Material & Supplies Dealers 3,484 3,779 4,087 4,236
4442 Lawn & Garden Equipment & Supplies Stores 10,590 11,306 12,539 12,653
4451 Grocery Stores 3,563 3,782 3,854 3,858
4452 Specialty Food Stores 6,492 6,767 6,970 7,691
4453 Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores NA NA 5,415 5,476
4461 Health & Personal Care Stores 3,278 3,073 2,987 3,000
4471 Gasoline Stations 2,651 2,767 2,506 2,546
4480 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 11,047 20,629 25,024 29,264
4481 Clothing Stores 3,211 2,931 3,041 3,153
4482 Shoe Stores 16,220 16,025 18,624 22,555
4483 Jewelry, Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores 5,495 6,150 6,852 8,234
4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores 1,991 2,075 2,417 2,605
4512 Book, Periodical, & Music Stores 5,652 7,079 11,429 12,969
452 General Merchandise Stores 4,917 4,820 5,255 5,435
4531 Florists 6,973 7,246 8,046 8,607
4532 Office Supplies, Stationery, & Gift Stores 2,976 3,051 3,047 3,677
4533 Used Merchandise Stores (antiques, other used) 2,657 2,796 3,240 3,966
4539 Other Misc Stores (pet, mobile home, art, tobacco) 808 952 1,099 1,302
4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail - Order Houses 3,930 2,876 2,883 2,808
4542 Vending Machine Operators 5,264 6,355 6,277 6,628
4543 Direct Selling Establishments 2,271 2,166 2,246 2,793
7121 Museums, Historical Sites, & Similar Institutions 32,539 NA 30,215 34,376
7131 Amusement Parks & Arcades 162,696 122,858 83,534 95,108
7139 Other Amusement (fitness centers, golf courses, bowling) 2,510 2,460 2,462 2,540
7211 Traveler Accommodation (hotels) 2,581 2,654 2,701 2,943
7220 Restaurants & Drinking Places 615 618 546 555
7223 Special Food Services (caterers, mobile food trucks) 5,434 4,685 3,880 4,529
8111 Automotive Repair & Maintenance 1,056 1,108 1,161 1,186
8112 Electronic & Equipment Repair & Maintenance 10,111 10,652 12,595 12,969
8113 Commercial Machinery & Equipment Repair 10,266 8,818 9,611 9,788
8114 Personal & Household Goods Repair 2,221 2,470 2,827 2,958
8121 Personal Care Services (hair, nail salons, barbers) 1,229 1,116 1,092 1,080
8123 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 10,345 11,446 13,241 14,195
8129 Other Personal Services (pet care, photo finishing) 1,694 1,748 1,844 1,938

Per capita sales also provide useful context for general spending by store format, as well as a sense of the scale of resident spending. For example, there are many personal care service establishments, such as barber shops, hair stylists, and nail salons, but the amount spent at these businesses pales in comparison to big box general merchandise stores.

Personal care service businesses only received $92 per Minnesota resident in 2020, down from $129 per resident in 2019 — a decrease likely related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, building material firms increased sales per resident by more than $200 during the same period to $1,394 per resident.

Table 2: Sales per Minnesota resident by year and NAICS category
NAICS Industry 2012 2016 2019 2020
4411 Automobile Dealers $1,859 $2,426 $2,680 $2,477
4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers (rec vehicles, boats, RVs) $362 $461 $542 $564
4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores $341 $375 $388 $381
4421 Furniture Stores $180 $228 $231 $216
4422 Home Furnishings Stores $149 $184 $184 $169
4431 Electronics & Appliance Stores $513 $446 $457 $412
4441 Building Material & Supplies Dealers $1,043 $1,164 $1,184 $1,394
4442 Lawn & Garden Equipment & Supplies Stores $164 $127 $144 $152
4451 Grocery Stores $1,838 $1,848 $1,999 $2,166
4452 Specialty Food Stores $111 $140 $159 $156
4453 Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores NA NA $351 $409
4461 Health & Personal Care Stores $626 $828 $819 $789
4471 Gasoline Stations $1,979 $1,430 $1,720 $1,400
4480 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $131 $84 $67 $45
4481 Clothing Stores $320 $375 $308 $221
4482 Shoe Stores $61 $67 $54 $42
4483 Jewelry, Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores $80 $80 $78 $67
4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores $392 $338 $301 $333
4512 Book, Periodical, & Music Stores $66 $50 $35 $26
452 General Merchandise Stores $2,250 $2,211 $2,249 $2,323
4531 Florists $26 $28 $27 $27
4532 Office Supplies, Stationery, & Gift Stores $170 $153 $133 $117
4533 Used Merchandise Stores (antiques, other used) $55 $60 $57 $48
4539 Other Misc Stores (pet, mobile home, art, tobacco) $461 $478 $457 $427
4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail - Order Houses $157 $175 $379 $1,004
4542 Vending Machine Operators $28 $30 $27 $19
4543 Direct Selling Establishments $314 $188 $232 $195
7121 Museums, Historical Sites, & Similar Institutions $6 NA $9 $4
7131 Amusement Parks & Arcades $12 $5 $8 $4
7139 Other Amusement (fitness centers, golf courses, bowling) $223 $250 $272 $192
7211 Traveler Accommodation (hotels) $354 $436 $466 $227
7220 Restaurants & Drinking Places $1,264 $1,475 $1,733 $1,317
7223 Special Food Services (caterers, mobile food trucks) $111 $120 $137 $74
8111 Automotive Repair & Maintenance $390 $411 $473 $453
8112 Electronic & Equipment Repair & Maintenance $27 $27 $28 $27
8113 Commercial Machinery & Equipment Repair $87 $90 $108 $103
8114 Personal & Household Goods Repair $79 $83 $78 $74
8121 Personal Care Services (hair, nail salons, barbers) $103 $117 $129 $92
8123 Drycleaning & Laundry Services $55 $65 $58 $49
8129 Other Personal Services (pet care, photo finishing) $119 $146 $152 $113

Application to your community

Figure 2: New York Mills, Minnesota with a five-mile trade area

Geographic map of the five-mile threshold radius for New York Mills, Minnesota.


Since thresholds are based on simple population counts, you must first find the population for a reasonable trade area you want to analyze. You can, of course, simply compare the population of your city to the threshold list for an initial assessment of where there are gaps in your community for certain businesses. While this is a great place to start, the approach will miss people living near your community who spend as much as local consumers, and therefore underestimate the size of the market for a business.

We are typically not good at estimating population size outside of city limits. For example, the population of the city of New York Mills in Otter Tail County was 1,294 in 2020, but the total population within just five miles of the city center was more than double at 2,708.

If you are defining a trade area for a large community, it may also include nearby small towns. Conversely, defining the trade area for only a portion of a city makes sense if you’re examining opportunities suited to a particular neighborhood.
 

Figure 3: Rushford, Minnesota trade area

Geographic map of the five-mile trade for Rushford, Minnesota.


A demographic mapping tool, such as Business Analyst Online (BAO) can quickly generate not only the population for any trade area you define but also demographic and spending data by product. In addition, BAO has a threshold tool as well, which defines a trade area based on population from any given point. For example, if you’d like to see how big of an area you’d need to reach 10,190 people to meet the threshold for a furniture store in Minnesota, you would set a point in a business district of the community and BAO will define the area by ring or drive time.

Your purpose for determining a threshold will drive the size and shape of your trade area. For example, if you are examining a single business category, your trade area will be larger or smaller depending on whether or not you’re considering a destination or convenience business.

While a sporting goods or furniture store are destination businesses that typically have wide trade areas from which they pull customers, a barber shop or nail salon are convenience businesses that pull customers from a limited area. Your intention is to investigate which types of businesses may work for your community, so a general trade area that works as a composite for all businesses is best.

For many communities, school district boundaries work well as a general trade area. Identifying your community’s general trade area helps you sort through the thresholds of businesses to narrow down potential opportunities.

Table 3: Threshold by population of community trade area based on 2019 thresholds
NAICS Industry 1,000 2,500 5,000
4411 Automobile Dealers 0.15 0.38 0.76
4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers (rec vehicles, boats, RVs) 0.1 0.26 0.52
4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores 0.23 0.57 1.13
4421 Furniture Stores 0.1 0.25 0.49
4422 Home Furnishings Stores 0.17 0.43 0.87
4431 Electronics & Appliance Stores 0.24 0.61 1.22
4441 Building Material & Supplies Dealers 0.24 0.61 1.22
4442 Lawn & Garden Equipment & Supplies Stores 0.08 0.2 0.4
4451 Grocery Stores 0.26 0.65 1.3
4452 Specialty Food Stores 0.14 0.36 0.72
4453 Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores 0.18 0.46 0.92
4461 Health & Personal Care Stores 0.33 0.84 1.67
4471 Gasoline Stations 0.4 1 2
4480 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 0.04 0.1 0.2
4481 Clothing Stores 0.33 0.82 1.64
4482 Shoe Stores 0.05 0.13 0.27
4483 Jewelry, Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores 0.15 0.36 0.73
4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores 0.41 1.03 2.07
4512 Book, Periodical, & Music Stores 0.09 0.22 0.44
452 General Merchandise Stores 0.19 0.48 0.95
4531 Florists 0.12 0.31 0.62
4532 Office Supplies, Stationery, & Gift Stores 0.33 0.82 1.64
4533 Used Merchandise Stores (antiques, other used) 0.31 0.77 1.54
4539 Other Misc Stores (pet, mobile home, art, tobacco) 0.91 2.27 4.55
4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail - Order Houses 0.35 0.87 1.73
4542 Vending Machine Operators 0.16 0.4 0.8
4543 Direct Selling Establishments 0.45 1.11 2.23
7121 Museums, Historical Sites, & Similar Institutions 0.03 0.08 0.17
7131 Amusement Parks & Arcades 0.01 0.03 0.06
7139 Other Amusement (fitness centers, golf courses, bowling) 0.41 1.02 2.03
7211 Traveler Accommodation (hotels) 0.37 0.93 1.85
7220 Restaurants & Drinking Places 1.83 4.58 9.16
7223 Special Food Services (caterers, mobile food trucks) 0.26 0.64 1.29
8111 Automotive Repair & Maintenance 0.86 2.15 4.31
8112 Electronic & Equipment Repair & Maintenance 0.08 0.2 0.4
8113 Commercial Machinery & Equipment Repair 0.1 0.26 0.52
8114 Personal & Household Goods Repair 0.35 0.88 1.77
8171 Personal Care Services (hair, nail salons, barbers) 0.92 2.29 4.58
8123 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 0.08 0.19 0.38
8129 Other Personal Services (pet care, photo finishing) 0.54 1.36 2.71

If you are a community leader or economic development professional, your interest may not be in any one particular business but rather which types of businesses would work in your town generally. In this case, Table 3 provides a sense of what’s realistic by population size for a trade area of 1,000, 2,500, and 5,000 people.

Identify the industries with a threshold of one or more and compare them to your current businesses. Thresholds are a simple measure, however, and being below a one does not mean a business is impossible.

Considerations

While thresholds are simple measurements of market demand, they are a helpful place to determine some basic market analysis for discovering business opportunities. As you further refine an analysis of your community, other important factors should also be considered.

  1. Retail hierarchy and clustering. Large full-service shopping centers can support a wide mix of businesses, whereas a modest hamlet can support only basic convenience stores and goods. Niche retail has traditionally been found only in full-service shopping communities, although e-commerce has opened up some new opportunities.


    Regardless of size, however, similar types of businesses will cluster near one another instead of being evenly spread across the landscape. A 2014 analysis is available for business mix by size of community.
     

  2. Proximity to competition. Whether a community stands alone or is situated within the shadow of a large regional center can greatly impact whether or not it can support a particular retail or service business.
     
  3. Vitality of current business district(s). Retail business development hinges on the well-being of neighboring businesses. Often healthy, well-trafficked business districts easily attract new retailers while sleepy ones suffer. Public investments, business organization, and the general attractiveness of a business district can provide some momentum to turn a business opportunity into a reality.

Other resources

Author: Ryan Pesch, Extension educator

Reviewed in 2022

Page survey

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