Informing retail recovery in 87 counties

After months of pandemic-inflicted financial stress, communities across Minnesota are focused on helping Main Street businesses recover. Digging into available data about these businesses can help community leaders and economic developers focus that assistance so that it makes a difference.

To assist community leaders, Extension has compiled reports on retail economies in each of Minnesota’s 87 counties. The reports look in-depth at 13 retail sectors during the most recent year that complete sales data is available — 2018. Looking at data from previous years can add the perspective of retail trends over time. Are the number of businesses in your area changing? Are your retailers experiencing an increase or decrease in sales?

Understanding your retail economy

State sales tax data gives you a sense of the strength and importance of your community’s retail and service businesses. By law, businesses must report their gross sales, taxable sales, and sales and use tax to the Minnesota Department of Revenue yearly. The Department of Revenue, in turn, publishes a full dataset for the state around 24 months after the end of the fiscal year. This high-quality dataset provides valuable information about sales and the number of businesses in 13 retail and service categories for all counties and select cities across Minnesota.

For over a decade, Extension’s community economics team has analyzed state sales tax data in ways that can help communities understand their retail sector. The common measures we use to analyze retail trade are available for all of Minnesota’s 87 counties using 2018 data, the most recent data available from the Department of Revenue.

Measuring your retail economy

Descriptive statistics — like the number of businesses by category and changes in taxable sales over the past decade — are highly relevant information to decisions you make now. Extension’s analysis will help your community put current numbers into context. Is $40 million in taxable sales in your county a sign of strength or weakness? That depends on the size of your county, your pull factors, potential sales, and your community’s performance compared to others in the state over time.

In the below video, Ryan Pesch, Extension educator, tells you what you can expect to find in your county's report.

Find your county's retail trade analysis for 2018 in the section below.

Review your county's report

Important terms defined

Pull factor: A pull factor is defined as the per capita dollar sales of a city or county divided by the per capita sales for the state. For example, if a city's per capita sales are $20,000 per year and the state per capita sales are $10,000 per year, the pull factor is 2.0 ($20,000 ÷ $10,000). This means the city is selling to 200 percent of its population. Pull factors are good measures of sales activity because they reflect changes in population, inflation and the state economy.
Potential sales: Potential sales are the product of county population, state per capita sales, and the index of income. They are an estimate of the amount of money that is spent on retail goods and services by residents of a county. When compared to actual sales in the county, potential sales give you a sense of how your county is performing both overall and by business category.
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): NAICS is the standard used to classify business establishments by type. For example, bars and restaurants are all in category 722, Food Services and Drinking Places, whereas the 4-digit code 7225 includes only restaurants and the 6-digit code 722511 includes only full-service restaurants. While our retail trade analysis reports are organized by 3-digit code into 13 categories, other data sources provide statistics for more specific subcategories.

Resources for retail development

Our online resources can help you think about the future of your community's retail sector.

Downtown market analysis: Use this online guide to help understand the changing marketplace. It also provides realistic opportunities for your community.
Rural grocery stores: Learn how Extension has researched the needs and concerns of rural grocery stores.
Marketing mix analysis for farm operators (PDF): Find business and marketing tools to increase your profit when selling farm products.
Assess demand for a proposed business in your community: Get steps on how to calculate potential sales for a proposed business.
Where do your community's customers come from: Learn how to define your community's trade area.
How to identify new business opportunities: Learn how business thresholds help measure business types that might work in your community.

Need to dig deeper?

Extension's Department of Community Development is ready and available to provide you with customized retail analysis for your community. Use this analysis to gain insight into local retail development and assist in your community’s post-pandemic recovery. A custom analysis may include:

Retail trade analysis report by city
Consumer surveys
Trade area analysis

For more information, contact an Extension community economics educator.